Any two firing together → ignition red: IG-tech spreads widening toward HY · hyperscaler capex above operating cash flow for multiple quarters · GPU-backed / data-centre ABS spreads blowing out · a major vendor-financing counterparty stalling · Fed re-tightening or STLFSI4/NFCI stress spike.
Built on the four variables present in every major crisis since 1929 — leverage vs income, valuation vs fundamentals, fragile funding structure, and the "this-time-is-different" narrative — with monetary/liquidity conditions as the near-universal trigger (exogenous in 2020). The multiplicative composite prevents 1987-style false positives. Known limits: ~14 crises is a small sample; thresholds carry look-ahead bias; Goodhart's law applies once watched; valuation extremes can persist for years; exogenous shocks are unforecastable. Circular-financing headline figures are media/company estimates, several still letters of intent, and are flagged as such. A monitoring instrument, not investment advice.